Spring Creek announced it no longer accepts fiction submissions and will only consider nonfiction. Millennial Press also only accepts nonfiction. Statistics seem to favor nonfiction publication over fiction. Do you think the LDS fiction market will continue to grow and new writers still have a chance at publication or do you think the nonfiction market is pushing out the fiction?
Non-fiction sells better than fiction. By a long shot. If you're a small publisher, like Spring Creek and Millennial and several others, you have to make every penny count.
If you publish in the traditional way, you're looking at an investment of $8,000—10,000 per title, or more. If your fiction titles aren't selling fast enough, then your resources get tied up in inventory. If enough of your resources get bogged down in slow moving traffic, then you go out of business. It's not always a question of what we would prefer to publish, it's what we can afford to publish.
Having said that, YES, I think the LDS fiction market will continue to grow. The larger publishers seem committed to producing LDS fiction.
And YES, new writers have every chance in the world. Write a good book. It will get noticed.